Published: 25 March 2021
If patients waiting for elective surgery get COVID-19 vaccines ahead of the general population, post-operative deaths linked to the virus could be reduced, a new global study funded by the NIHR suggests.
The COVIDSurg Collaborative international team of researchers, led by experts at the University of Birmingham, has published its findings today in BJS (incorporating the British Journal of Surgery and the European Journal of Surgery), after studying data for 141,582 patients from across 1,667 hospitals in 116 countries -including Australia, Brazil, China, India, UAE, UK and USA - creating the world’s largest ever international study on surgery.
It found that between 0.6% and 1.6% of patients develop COVID-19 infection after elective surgery. Patients who develop COVID-19 infection are at between 4- and 8-fold increased risk of death in the 30 days following surgery.
For example, whereas patients aged 70 years and over undergoing cancer surgery would usually have a 2.8% mortality rate, this increases to 18.6% if they develop COVID-19 infection.
Based on the high risks that surgical patients face, scientists calculate that vaccination of surgical patients is more likely to prevent COVID-19 related deaths than vaccines given to the population at large – particularly among the over-70s and those undergoing surgery for cancer.
For example, whereas 1,840 people aged 70 years and over in the general population need to be vaccinated to save one life over one year, this figure is only 351 in patients aged 70 years and over having cancer surgery.
Overall, the scientists estimate that global prioritisation of pre-operative vaccination for elective patients could prevent an additional 58,687 COVID-19-related deaths in one year.
This could be particularly important for low- and middle-income countries where mitigation measures such as nasal swab screening and COVID-free surgical pathways, which can reduce the risk of complications related to the virus, are unlikely to be universally implemented. Vaccination is also likely to decrease post-operative pulmonary complications - reducing intensive care use and overall healthcare costs.
Co-lead author Mr Aneel Bhangu, from the University of Birmingham, commented: “Preoperative vaccination could support a safe re-start of elective surgery by significantly reducing the risk of COVID-19 complications in patients and preventing tens of thousands of COVID-19-related post-operative deaths.
“Many countries, particularly low- and middle-income countries, will not have widespread access to COVD for several years. While vaccine supplies are limited, governments are prioritising vaccination for groups at highest risk of COVID-19 mortality. Our work can help to inform these decisions.”
During the first wave of the pandemic, the study estimated that up to 70% of elective surgeries were postponed, resulting in an estimated 28 million procedures being delayed or cancelled globally.
Surgery volumes have started to recover in many countries, though ongoing disruption may continue throughout 2021, in the event of countries experiencing further waves of COVID-19.